A Global Trade War in 2018? — Risks for the World Economy and Financial Markets

A Global Trade War in 2018? — Risks for the World Economy and Financial Markets

February 27, 2018

The risks of a global trade war are rising. In the coming weeks, the Trump Administration is almost certain to implement aggressive tariffs or quotas on steel and aluminum imports under the United States’ Section 232 national security clause. If China, in particular, retaliates to Section 232 actions in an aggressive manner, the situation could unravel quickly, with very detrimental effects on global financial markets. In this analysis, Keybridge examines the possibility of a full-fledged trade war, and the impacts it would have on the world economy.

Related Documents: Key Insight – A Global Trade War in 2018? – February 2018

The Bitter U.S. Immigration Fight: Lower Economic Growth and Maybe Also a Government Shutdown

The Bitter U.S. Immigration Fight: Lower Economic Growth and Maybe Also a Government Shutdown

January 26, 2018

Over the past year, the Trump administration has worked behind the scenes to implement dramatic new restrictions on legal immigration and crack down on illegal immigration. In this analysis, Keybridge examines the impact of recent changes as well as potential future shifts in U.S. immigration policy.

Related Documents: Key Insight – The Bitter U.S. Immigration Fight – January 2018

9 Million Missing U.S. Workers: Where Did They Go?  What Does Their Disappearance Mean for the Fed’s Monetary Policy?

9 Million Missing U.S. Workers: Where Did They Go? What Does Their Disappearance Mean for the Fed’s Monetary Policy?

July 28, 2017

The U.S. labor force participation rate has fallen 3.6 percentage points since 2007, meaning there are 9 million “missing” workers today. In this analysis, Keybridge examines several factors driving this trend, the most important being an ongoing shift in demographics as the baby boom generation retires. We conclude that labor market conditions remain tighter than many believe — even though expected wage pressures have not yet ensued.

Related Documents:  Key Insight – The Declining Labor Force Participation Rate – July 2017

Predicting Gold Prices with the Keybridge U.S. Momentum Monitor

Predicting Gold Prices with the Keybridge U.S. Momentum Monitor

May 15, 2014

Keybridge’s U.S. Economic Momentum Monitor is shown to be a reliable indicator of future movements in gold prices.  This latest Key Insight provides a useful tool for timing investments in gold.

Related Documents: Key Insight – U.S. Momentum Monitor and Gold Prices – May 2014

Thoughts on End of Summer U.S. Economic Data

Thoughts on End of Summer U.S. Economic Data

August 30, 2013

Keybridge’s Robert Wescott analyzes the mixed picture resulting from the latest U.S. economic data.  Dr. Wescott concludes that with a weak start to key components of GDP – consumption and capital spending – the third quarter may see only modest growth.

Related Documents: Key Insight – End Of Summer Economic Data – Aug 2013

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