United States: 2019 Mid-Year Macro Update

United States: 2019 Mid-Year Macro Update

July 15, 2019

The U.S. economy continued its decade-long expansion in the first quarter of 2019, achieving 3.1% annualized growth. The expansion is being driven by a strong labor market and low borrowing costs, but several headwinds are gaining momentum. Softening in housing and manufacturing, compounded by uncertainty from international trade disputes, is likely to dampen growth to 2.3-2.5% for the year.

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United States: Macroeconomic Effects of Rising Student Loan Debt

United States: Macroeconomic Effects of Rising Student Loan Debt

June 11, 2019

Student debt is weighing strongly on the minds (and bank accounts) of many Americans. Data suggest that borrowing for college benefits the U.S. economy overall by improving access to education and increasing students’ lifetime earning potential, but it may also cause young adults to delay important milestones like getting married or buying a home. Student debt is unlikely to trigger an economic or financial crisis, but individual borrowers will be especially vulnerable during a recession.

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U.S.-China Trade Outlook

U.S.-China Trade Outlook

March 14, 2019

Recent delays in trade talks between the U.S. and China have revived concerns about an all-out trade war between the two nations. The conflict has evolved beyond trade deficit issues as the U.S. pressures Beijing for substantive structural reforms that are unlikely to occur in the near term. Even if the U.S. and China can resolve the present trade dispute, the broader strategic confrontation will live on.

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Why Global Financial Markets Are Too Sanguine About a Trump-Xi Trade Deal

Why Global Financial Markets Are Too Sanguine About a Trump-Xi Trade Deal

February 14, 2019

Global financial markets are increasingly optimistic that President Trump and President Xi will soon agree to a trade deal that will reassure and ignite financial markets. Such optimism, however, is unwarranted. In this analysis, Keybridge lays out major areas of concern surrounding a potential trade deal and the long-term impacts on global financial markets.

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United States: 2019 Macroeconomic Outlook

United States: 2019 Macroeconomic Outlook

January 25, 2019

The U.S. economy accelerated in 2018, and the visible strength of economic fundamentals in the U.S. may lead some to assume that economic growth in 2019 will match that of the preceding year. However, the U.S. economy faces a number of strengthening headwinds that appear likely to constrain growth in the coming year. In this 2019 Macroeconomic Outlook, Keybridge examines the headwinds, tailwinds, and uncertainties that the economy will face in the year ahead.

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