U.S. Economic Indicators

U.S. Economic Indicators

December 23, 2020

U.S. Economic Indicators

Initial jobless claims fell 89,000 to 803,000 last week. The four-week moving average increased 1,750 to 818,250. DOL Report

Real disposable personal income decreased 1.3% in November, while real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased 0.4%. Both the PCE price index (up 1.1% Y/Y) and the core price index (up 1.4% Y/Y) were unchanged. BEA Report

New orders of manufactured durable goods rose 0.9% in November after increasing 1.8% (revised) in October. Excluding transportation, new orders rose 0.4% last month after rising 1.9% the month before. Census Bureau Report

New home sales declined 11.0% in November to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 841,000 but were up 20.8% above year-ago levels. The median sales price edged down to $335,300 and the inventory of new homes ticked up to 4.1 months at the current sales rate. Census Bureau Report

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose 3.8 points to 80.7 in the final December reading but is down 18.6 points from December of last year. The Index of Consumer Expectations rose 4.1 points to 74.6, while the Current Economic Conditions Index rose 3.0 points to 90.0. University of Michigan

U.S. Economic News

U.S. Economic News

December 22, 2020

U.S. Economic Indicators

The third and final estimate of Q3 GDP indicates that the U.S. economy expanded at an annualized rate of 33.4% in the third quarter, up slightly from the prior estimate of 33.1%. For the third estimate, upward revisions to consumer spending and business investment were partly offset by a downward revision to exports. BEA Report

Existing home sales fell 2.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.7 million in November but were up 25.8% compared to a year ago. Home sales were either flat or declined in all four major regions compared to the prior month but were up significantly on a year-on-year basis. NAR Report

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index declined from 92.9 (revised) in November to 88.6 in December. Consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions decreased sharply while near-term expectations for jobs and business conditions improved. Conference Board Report

U.S. Economic News

U.S. Economic News

December 21, 2020

U.S. Economic Indicators

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index declined from +1.01 in October to +0.27 in November, indicating positive but slower growth. Three of the four broad categories of indicators – production, employment, and sales, orders, & inventories – contributed positively to the overall index, while the consumption category contributed negatively. Chicago Fed Report

U.S. News

Jeff Stein and Mike DeBonis report for the Washington Post that after months of gridlock, Senate leadership finally announced a $900 billion bipartisan relief package that is expected to be approved quickly by Congress. Among other provisions, the new package includes $600 direct stimulus checks, $300 weekly enhanced unemployment benefits, and $275 billion for a new round of Paycheck Protection Program funding. WaPo

U.S. Economic News

U.S. Economic News

December 18, 2020

U.S. Economic Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (“LEI”) rose 0.6% in November following a 0.8% increase in October. The LEI has continued improving though at a slower pace, with consumers’ worsening outlook underscoring downside risks to growth from continued spread of COVID-19. Conference Board Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that a worsening public health situation early in Q1 2021 could give way to a rapid economic turnaround heading into spring. Measures of economic activity including retail sales are already showing signs of weakness from the current virus surge and may weaken further as transmission rises through the winter, but the onset of warmer weather, improved testing regimens, and rising vaccine rates by March are reasons for optimism. WSJ

U.S. Economic News

U.S. Economic News

December 17, 2020

U.S. Economic Indicators

Initial jobless claims rose 23,000 to 885,000 last week. The four-week moving average increased 34,250 to 812,500. DOL Report

Privately-owned housing starts increased 1.2% in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.55 million (up 12.8% year-over-year). Housing permits rose 6.2% to a 1.64 million annual pace (up 8.5% from last year). Census Bureau Report